Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.5%
Aston Villa
28.4%
Draw
51.1%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.93
Aston Villa
vs
1.59
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.546.3%
Over 3.524.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
0-1
11.1%
0-2
10.1%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
9.5%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
5.4%
1-3
5.0%
2-2
4.4%
2-0
3.5%
2-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).