Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →12.8%
Aston Villa
14.3%
Draw
72.9%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Aston Villa
vs
2.93
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS65.8%
Over 0.598.6%
Over 1.591.5%
Over 2.577.9%
Over 3.559.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
8.3%
1-3
8.1%
0-2
6.9%
0-3
6.8%
1-4
5.9%
1-1
5.5%
2-2
5.0%
0-4
5.0%
0-1
4.9%
2-3
4.8%
2-4
3.5%
1-5
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).