Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.1%
Millwall
26.6%
Draw
17.3%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Millwall
vs
0.80
Luton
Markets
BTTS45.0%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.570.6%
Over 2.543.5%
Over 3.522.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.5%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
11.7%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
4.6%
2-2
3.7%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).