Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.1%
Setubal
27.3%
Draw
18.7%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Setubal
vs
0.66
Tondela
Markets
BTTS35.0%
Over 0.587.0%
Over 1.558.9%
Over 2.532.4%
Over 3.514.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.7%
0-0
13.0%
2-0
12.3%
1-1
11.4%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.0%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
3.9%
3-1
3.6%
0-2
2.9%
2-2
2.6%
4-0
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).