Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.1%
Birmingham
21.8%
Draw
13.1%
Bolton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.67
Birmingham
vs
0.57
Bolton
Markets
BTTS34.3%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.564.5%
Over 2.538.6%
Over 3.518.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.7%
2-0
14.9%
0-0
9.9%
1-1
9.3%
2-1
8.4%
3-0
8.3%
0-1
6.9%
3-1
4.7%
4-0
3.4%
1-2
2.9%
2-2
2.4%
4-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).