Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.7%
Manchester City
17.5%
Draw
14.8%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
2.35
Manchester City
vs
1.00
Man United
Markets
BTTS57.1%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.584.6%
Over 2.565.2%
Over 3.543.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
8.5%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.6%
3-0
7.6%
2-2
4.9%
4-1
4.5%
4-0
4.5%
1-2
4.1%
3-2
3.8%
0-1
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).