Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →16.6%
Lecce
25.5%
Draw
57.9%
Napoli
Expected Goals (xG)
0.67
Lecce
vs
1.52
Napoli
Markets
BTTS38.0%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.564.1%
Over 2.537.5%
Over 3.517.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.2%
0-2
12.9%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
11.0%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
7.7%
0-3
6.5%
1-3
4.4%
2-1
3.8%
2-2
2.9%
2-0
2.5%
0-4
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).