Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.2%
Luton
29.8%
Draw
38.9%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Luton
vs
1.25
Watford
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.568.9%
Over 2.541.6%
Over 3.521.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
10.5%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
4.5%
1-3
3.4%
0-3
3.1%
3-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).