Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.3%
Man United
20.5%
Draw
15.3%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
2.39
Man United
vs
1.13
Burnley
Markets
BTTS62.5%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.587.7%
Over 2.568.2%
Over 3.546.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.1%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
7.6%
3-0
6.8%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.4%
4-1
4.6%
1-2
4.5%
3-2
4.3%
0-0
4.1%
4-0
4.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).