Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.9%
Luton
29.6%
Draw
45.5%
Millwall
Expected Goals (xG)
0.95
Luton
vs
1.37
Millwall
Markets
BTTS46.6%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.540.7%
Over 3.520.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
0-1
12.5%
0-0
11.0%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
4.4%
0-3
4.2%
2-2
4.1%
1-3
4.0%
3-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).