Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.0%
Preston
29.0%
Draw
40.1%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Preston
vs
1.33
Derby
Markets
BTTS50.8%
Over 0.590.5%
Over 1.571.4%
Over 2.544.7%
Over 3.523.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.8%
0-1
10.4%
0-0
9.5%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.5%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
3.8%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).