Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.1%
Man United
27.8%
Draw
31.1%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.56
Man United
vs
1.34
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS59.9%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.580.2%
Over 2.555.5%
Over 3.533.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.1%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).