Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.9%
Moreirense
20.0%
Draw
66.1%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.74
Moreirense
vs
1.94
Benfica
Markets
BTTS44.4%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.550.2%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.7%
0-2
12.9%
1-2
9.6%
1-1
9.4%
0-3
8.3%
0-0
6.4%
1-3
6.2%
1-0
5.5%
0-4
4.0%
2-1
3.7%
2-2
3.5%
1-4
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).