Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.8%
Hamburg
30.1%
Draw
28.1%
M'gladbach
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Hamburg
vs
0.99
M'gladbach
Markets
BTTS46.0%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.566.8%
Over 2.539.2%
Over 3.519.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
11.4%
0-1
9.5%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.1%
2-2
4.1%
3-0
3.5%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).