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AHT: 10CSV

19 Aug 2025 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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27.8%
Port Vale
30.0%
Draw
42.2%
Stevenage

Expected Goals (xG)

0.78

Port Vale

vs
1.05

Stevenage

Markets

BTTS34.1%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.553.4%
Over 2.527.7%
Over 3.511.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
17.9%
0-0
15.0%
1-0
13.7%
1-1
12.0%
0-2
8.8%
1-2
6.9%
2-1
5.1%
2-0
4.9%
0-3
3.1%
2-2
2.7%
1-3
2.4%
3-1
1.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).