Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.9%
Fiorentina
21.1%
Draw
15.1%
Monza
Expected Goals (xG)
1.91
Fiorentina
vs
0.79
Monza
Markets
BTTS46.5%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.575.1%
Over 2.550.8%
Over 3.528.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.9%
2-0
12.2%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
7.8%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.2%
0-1
5.5%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.9%
4-0
3.7%
4-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).