Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →4.6%
Belenenses
12.5%
Draw
82.9%
Sp Lisbon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.40
Belenenses
vs
2.44
Sp Lisbon
Markets
BTTS29.6%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.577.3%
Over 2.554.0%
Over 3.531.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
17.5%
0-1
14.5%
0-3
14.2%
0-4
8.7%
1-2
6.9%
1-3
5.6%
0-0
5.6%
1-1
5.4%
0-5
4.2%
1-4
3.4%
1-0
2.6%
1-5
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).