Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.7%
Bari
30.8%
Draw
35.6%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Bari
vs
1.18
Spal
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.588.9%
Over 1.568.8%
Over 2.541.1%
Over 3.520.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.1%
0-1
10.2%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
4.5%
1-3
3.1%
3-1
2.9%
0-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).