Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.9%
Arouca
26.0%
Draw
21.1%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.68
Arouca
vs
0.98
Tondela
Markets
BTTS51.8%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.575.3%
Over 2.549.7%
Over 3.527.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
1-0
10.8%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
7.9%
0-1
6.0%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.5%
3-1
5.4%
2-2
4.7%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).