Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.8%
Gil Vicente
17.2%
Draw
9.1%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
2.11
Gil Vicente
vs
0.57
Chaves
Markets
BTTS37.9%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.550.3%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.3%
1-0
14.8%
3-0
10.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-1
7.9%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.1%
4-0
5.7%
0-1
4.3%
4-1
3.2%
2-2
2.5%
5-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).