Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.6%
Burgos
29.0%
Draw
20.3%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Burgos
vs
0.69
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS36.0%
Over 0.586.2%
Over 1.558.5%
Over 2.531.6%
Over 3.513.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.9%
0-0
13.8%
1-1
12.2%
2-0
11.4%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.9%
3-0
4.8%
1-2
4.3%
3-1
3.4%
0-2
3.3%
2-2
2.7%
4-0
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).