Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →74.7%
Benfica
18.5%
Draw
6.8%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Benfica
vs
0.48
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS34.0%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
16.7%
1-0
15.5%
3-0
11.6%
1-1
8.2%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
4-0
6.1%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
3.2%
4-1
2.9%
5-0
2.5%
2-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).