Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →88.9%
Arsenal
9.0%
Draw
2.1%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
3.14
Arsenal
vs
0.42
Watford
Markets
BTTS33.2%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.587.5%
Over 2.569.0%
Over 3.547.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
14.7%
2-0
14.0%
4-0
11.6%
1-0
8.4%
5-0
7.3%
3-1
6.1%
2-1
5.9%
4-1
4.8%
1-1
4.2%
0-0
3.4%
5-1
3.0%
3-2
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).