Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.4%
Swindon
17.0%
Draw
13.6%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
2.35
Swindon
vs
0.93
Newport County
Markets
BTTS54.2%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.583.4%
Over 2.563.5%
Over 3.541.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
9.3%
3-0
8.2%
1-1
7.9%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
4.8%
2-2
4.5%
4-1
4.4%
0-1
3.9%
1-2
3.8%
3-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).