Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.9%
Burton
25.8%
Draw
29.4%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Burton
vs
0.99
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS44.7%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.565.7%
Over 2.540.3%
Over 3.520.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.2%
1-1
11.9%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
9.0%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.2%
3-0
3.7%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).