Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.2%
Chesterfield
25.2%
Draw
36.6%
Notts County
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
Chesterfield
vs
1.30
Notts County
Markets
BTTS53.1%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.549.0%
Over 3.527.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.1%
0-0
6.7%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).