Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.3%
Stevenage
27.1%
Draw
24.6%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
Stevenage
vs
0.80
Burton
Markets
BTTS38.3%
Over 0.588.3%
Over 1.559.9%
Over 2.533.9%
Over 3.515.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
1-1
11.8%
0-0
11.7%
0-1
11.3%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
4.1%
3-1
3.4%
2-2
3.2%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).