Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.3%
Villarreal B
23.4%
Draw
52.3%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
Villarreal B
vs
1.74
Malaga
Markets
BTTS55.0%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.577.5%
Over 2.554.1%
Over 3.531.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.1%
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.8%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
6.2%
0-0
5.7%
1-3
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
0-3
5.1%
2-0
3.6%
2-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).