Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.9%
Tondela
28.7%
Draw
50.4%
Famalicao
Expected Goals (xG)
0.68
Tondela
vs
1.25
Famalicao
Markets
BTTS34.8%
Over 0.586.1%
Over 1.557.0%
Over 2.530.5%
Over 3.513.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
18.6%
0-0
13.9%
1-1
11.8%
0-2
11.3%
1-0
10.5%
1-2
7.7%
0-3
4.7%
2-1
4.2%
2-0
3.4%
1-3
3.2%
2-2
2.6%
0-4
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).