Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →15.9%
Morecambe
20.2%
Draw
63.9%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77
Morecambe
vs
1.85
Derby
Markets
BTTS44.5%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.548.8%
Over 3.527.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.3%
0-2
12.4%
1-2
9.6%
1-1
9.5%
0-3
7.7%
1-0
6.4%
0-0
6.4%
1-3
5.9%
2-1
4.0%
2-2
3.7%
0-4
3.6%
1-4
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).