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27 Apr 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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45.5%
AFC Wimbledon
29.8%
Draw
24.7%
Walsall

Expected Goals (xG)

1.16

AFC Wimbledon

vs
0.76

Walsall

Markets

BTTS36.0%
Over 0.585.8%
Over 1.556.6%
Over 2.530.1%
Over 3.512.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
17.5%
0-0
14.2%
1-1
12.4%
0-1
11.7%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
4.9%
0-2
4.3%
3-0
3.8%
3-1
2.9%
2-2
2.8%
1-3
1.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).