Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →75.8%
Leeds
16.9%
Draw
7.3%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.51
Leeds
vs
0.70
Southampton
Markets
BTTS47.2%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.584.0%
Over 2.562.2%
Over 3.539.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.7%
3-0
10.6%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
8.9%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
6.7%
0-0
5.0%
4-1
4.7%
5-0
3.3%
2-2
3.1%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).