Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.9%
Chelsea
26.8%
Draw
18.3%
Crystal Palace
Expected Goals (xG)
1.73
Chelsea
vs
0.92
Crystal Palace
Markets
BTTS50.9%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.575.6%
Over 2.549.2%
Over 3.527.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-0
10.7%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.7%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
5.2%
0-1
5.0%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).