Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.8%
Aston Villa
28.8%
Draw
40.4%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
Aston Villa
vs
1.47
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS56.9%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.577.4%
Over 2.551.4%
Over 3.529.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-2
8.9%
0-0
8.2%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.0%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.6%
2-0
5.2%
1-3
4.4%
0-3
3.5%
3-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).