Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.2%
Charlton
32.3%
Draw
37.5%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.97
Charlton
vs
1.11
Derby
Markets
BTTS42.8%
Over 0.586.4%
Over 1.562.7%
Over 2.534.6%
Over 3.515.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.6%
0-1
12.7%
1-0
11.0%
0-2
7.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
3.6%
0-3
2.9%
1-3
2.8%
3-1
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).