Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.8%
Aston Villa
29.3%
Draw
21.0%
Nott'm Forest
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Aston Villa
vs
0.91
Nott'm Forest
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.571.6%
Over 2.543.9%
Over 3.522.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.5%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.1%
3-1
4.7%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).