Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.3%
Luton
22.9%
Draw
29.8%
Plymouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Luton
vs
1.20
Plymouth
Markets
BTTS54.4%
Over 0.594.8%
Over 1.575.5%
Over 2.552.5%
Over 3.530.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
10.8%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
8.4%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.6%
0-0
5.2%
3-1
4.9%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.1%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).