Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.9%
Luton
24.8%
Draw
55.3%
Everton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
Luton
vs
1.94
Everton
Markets
BTTS58.7%
Over 0.593.8%
Over 1.582.1%
Over 2.558.6%
Over 3.536.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.0%
0-1
7.8%
1-3
6.4%
0-0
6.2%
0-3
5.8%
2-1
5.6%
2-2
5.5%
1-0
3.9%
2-3
3.5%
1-4
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).