Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.3%
Southampton
26.8%
Draw
27.9%
Millwall
Expected Goals (xG)
1.56
Southampton
vs
1.18
Millwall
Markets
BTTS55.4%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.551.4%
Over 3.529.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
7.9%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.1%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).