Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →74.5%
Santander
14.8%
Draw
10.7%
Villarreal B
Expected Goals (xG)
2.69
Santander
vs
0.94
Villarreal B
Markets
BTTS56.7%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.587.7%
Over 2.570.3%
Over 3.549.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
8.6%
3-1
8.1%
1-0
7.2%
1-1
6.6%
4-0
5.8%
4-1
5.5%
2-2
4.2%
3-2
3.8%
1-2
3.1%
5-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).