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AHT: 11CSV

13 Apr 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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34.7%
Milton Keynes Dons
22.8%
Draw
42.6%
Mansfield

Expected Goals (xG)

1.47

Milton Keynes Dons

vs
1.65

Mansfield

Markets

BTTS61.9%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.560.4%
Over 3.538.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.7%
1-0
6.9%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.0%
1-3
4.9%
2-0
4.8%
0-0
4.0%
3-1
3.9%
2-3
3.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).