Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.7%
Derby
21.1%
Draw
18.2%
Reading
Expected Goals (xG)
1.79
Derby
vs
0.84
Reading
Markets
BTTS46.4%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.548.8%
Over 3.527.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.8%
2-0
11.5%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
4.6%
2-2
4.1%
4-0
3.1%
4-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).