Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.4%
Carlisle
25.1%
Draw
49.5%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
0.91
Carlisle
vs
1.40
Exeter
Markets
BTTS43.8%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.566.0%
Over 2.540.6%
Over 3.520.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.0%
1-1
11.6%
1-0
10.1%
0-2
9.8%
0-0
8.9%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
4.6%
1-3
4.1%
2-0
4.1%
2-2
4.0%
2-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).