Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.8%
Northampton
28.0%
Draw
21.2%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Northampton
vs
0.72
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS36.6%
Over 0.587.1%
Over 1.559.1%
Over 2.532.6%
Over 3.514.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.8%
0-0
12.9%
1-1
11.9%
2-0
11.2%
0-1
10.1%
2-1
8.0%
3-0
4.8%
1-2
4.5%
3-1
3.5%
0-2
3.4%
2-2
2.9%
4-0
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).