Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.1%
Sp Braga
12.7%
Draw
7.2%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
3.09
Sp Braga
vs
0.90
Arouca
Markets
BTTS57.1%
Over 0.597.8%
Over 1.591.2%
Over 2.576.1%
Over 3.556.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
9.1%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
4-0
7.0%
4-1
6.3%
1-1
5.5%
1-0
5.3%
5-0
4.3%
5-1
3.9%
3-2
3.7%
2-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).