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AHT: 11CSV

07 Apr 2018

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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67.0%
Port Vale
20.1%
Draw
12.9%
Crawley Town

Expected Goals (xG)

1.92

Port Vale

vs
0.69

Crawley Town

Markets

BTTS42.1%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.573.0%
Over 2.548.4%
Over 3.526.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
14.5%
2-0
13.6%
1-1
9.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
8.7%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
5.5%
4-0
4.2%
1-2
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
4-1
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).