Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.5%
Crewe
24.1%
Draw
22.5%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.60
Crewe
vs
0.93
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.571.5%
Over 2.546.5%
Over 3.525.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.2%
1-1
11.4%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).