Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.7%
Spezia
33.5%
Draw
29.8%
Ascoli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Spezia
vs
0.93
Ascoli
Markets
BTTS41.0%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.560.5%
Over 2.532.1%
Over 3.514.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
15.0%
1-1
14.8%
1-0
13.1%
0-1
11.4%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
3.3%
3-0
2.7%
3-1
2.5%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).