Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.9%
Stoke
30.6%
Draw
33.5%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Stoke
vs
1.10
Derby
Markets
BTTS46.7%
Over 0.588.5%
Over 1.566.8%
Over 2.539.2%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-0
11.5%
1-0
11.1%
0-1
10.6%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
4.2%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
2.7%
3-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).