Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.6%
Notts County
27.5%
Draw
34.9%
Port Vale
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Notts County
vs
1.11
Port Vale
Markets
BTTS45.7%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.565.9%
Over 2.539.9%
Over 3.519.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-0
12.5%
0-1
11.9%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
3.0%
1-3
2.7%
3-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).